The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order
新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
新冠病毒这种魔幻的爆发让我想起二战阿登战役期间我在84步兵师服役的情景。而今,恰似1944年的那个时候,山雨欲来风满楼,其危势并非指向某个人,而是压向任何一个趴在战壕里的军人。然而这次疫情又与那时很不同,那时的美国有着明确的战略目标。而今天,美国陷入分裂,需要高效和睿智的政府来克服当前这个史无前例的全球性困难。当前最紧要的就是维持住政府的公信力,这对团结社会力量,协调社会关系,维持国际和平和稳定都至关重要。
此处注意几个点,第一“美国有着明确的战略目标”这个目标应该是类似“战胜法西斯”一类的目标。二战时期美国自上到下对于这个目标是有着广泛共识的。而基辛格下面接着说“美国陷入分裂,需要高效和睿智的政府”也即是说,美国目前还米有一个统一的目标,政府低效且缺乏远见。后面说“当前最紧要的就是维持住政府的公信力”这就是对川普三天两头变来变去的一种批评。一个今天说不戴口罩,明天又戴口罩的总统,公信力如何不言而喻。
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.
国家的团结和繁荣基于它的政府能够预见灾难,控制其影响,恢复稳定。以此为标准,当新冠疫情结束,许多国家政府都会被认为是失败的。无论这个评判是否公正,这都不再重要。重要的是世界将再也回不去了。纠结过去无益处于解决当下难题。
此处的“许多国家政府都会被认为是失败的”显然包括美国,因为目前美国是疫情最严重的国家。所谓“世界将再也回不去了”指的就是美国政府威信丧失是一个无法避免也无法改变的事实。所以不要再费口舌为自己辩解,赶紧做点儿实事儿。