任何一个美利坚之外的国家想拓展自己的生存空间，就是动了美国人的奶酪。因为他们的思维模式里，全世界的奶酪都是美国的。
On a larger scale, there are regions that could provide the next leg of global growth. The ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) is a bloc that holds substantial promise. But even a group of this size and economic dynamism is only expected to produce 5 percent of the world’s growth for the next decade. For comparison, an improving EU is only expected to contribute 7 percent to global growth. In the next 20 years, however, the ASEAN-5 could grow to a size where its growth would have a more substantial impact.
扩大标准来说，还有一个地区可以成为世界经济增长的新支点，东盟5国（印度尼西亚，马来西亚，菲律宾，泰国，越南），他们是一个联盟并且有实质性的希望。但是就算这些这样规模的经济体加一起，在下个10年，也不过预计将贡献全球新增经济的5个百分，作为比较，逐有起色的欧盟也会贡献7个百分点。可能在下个20年，东盟会成长到，自身的增长会对全球有实质性影响的程度。
There is also sub-Saharan Africa. Decades struggling to recover from colonial oversight and a seemingly perpetual resource curse have left Africa the last frontier for industrialization, and this could be the case for quite some time. In 1984, SSA was contributing 2 percent of global growth—the same as the ASEAN-5 and only slightly less than India. Today the region contributes 4 percent, which is more than Russia or Brazil. With its young population, a fertility rate that is well above the global norm—around five children per woman, and a population pushing one billion people, demographics favor SSA. A case can be made that there will be an African moment, but political and tribal strife impede this progress, keeping SSAs a few spots back in the growth queue. The region will need time to create the institutions necessary to support lasting economic growth. But down the road, there is the potential for it to be an economic growth engine for the globe.
除此还有，撒哈拉以南非洲，殖民时代过后，几十年来都在努力恢复，看似没完没了的资源问题让非洲远离工业化的第一线，而且在很多时候，这都是大问题。在1984年，撒哈拉以南非洲贡献了全球增长的2个百分点，很东盟五国相当，略少于印度，而如今这个地区贡献了4个百分点，比俄罗斯比巴西都多，这里有足够多的年轻人口，人口出生率在全球均线以上，一个妇女大概会有5个孩子，人口逼近10亿关口，撒哈拉以南非洲有人口优势，注定将会有非洲时刻的来临，但是政治和部落抑制了这时刻的来临，让这里回归到增长的路途上。这地区还需要时间建立必要的制度来保障持续的经济增长，但是长久看去，这里具有成为下一个全球增长引擎的希望。
美国最高领导人奥巴马
At least for now, there is no “other” China on the verge of emerging as the next engine of global growth. But there may be some on the horizon. For now, the US and China are the dominant forces of global growth, combining for more than 45 percent. There will come a time when the global economy needs the next China, but that time is not here yet.
Samuel Rines is an economist with Chilton Capital Management in Houston, TX.
至少现在，还没有的国家可以取代中国，成为下一个全球增长的引擎，连边都够不上。但是，却有很多国家已蓄势待发，目前，美国和中国是全球经济增长的支配性力量，合计贡献45个百分点，世界总有一个时刻需要新的中国出现来带动全球经济，但是那个时刻已然未到。
今后十年中国进于战争高危期的主要原因如下：
