任何一个美利坚之外的国家想拓展自己的生存空间，就是动了美国人的奶酪。因为他们的思维模式里，全世界的奶酪都是美国的。
Not bad for a developing country. Developing economies supplanted advanced economies more than a decade ago as the primary contributors to global economic growth, and as of last year the developing world now controls more GDP than the advanced economies. But much of this is actually China, and taking China out—or shifting China to the advanced country column—would dramatically alter the global economic picture (at least on paper). And that may be what the future holds.
10年后，发展中国家取代发达经济体成为全球经济增长的主要贡献者，对于发展中国家很不错，在去年，发展中国家新增的生产总值已经超过发达经济体。其中绝大部分原因是因为中国的存在，如果不统计中国，或者把中国归为发达国家，将会极大的改变世界经济的面貌（至少纸面上是），而这在未来终将发生。
Why? Chinese demographics are part of the reason for its success. With 1.3 billion people, China is the most populous country on the planet, and its economy has benefitted from a tremendous inflow of people from the countryside to cities. More migration to cities is expected, but China faces an aging population that is partially a result of its one child policy. This means a declining working age population in coming years, and an increase in the costs of caring for the elderly. Demographics evolve slowly though, giving time for the next growth engine to emerge.
为什么会这样？中国的人口是其成功原因的一部分，13亿人口，中国是地球上人口最多的国家，经济也从城市和农村的婴儿潮中获益，可期的越来越多的城市移民，但是中国也面临老龄化，部分是因为一胎化的政策，这样也造成了近些年劳动人口的减少，老人抚养费用的增加，人口结构在慢慢的演变，中国还有时间去寻找下一个增长的动力。
Which countries and regions may, one day, replace Chinese growth? Brazil, India, Russia have not yet had their moment. India boasts the world’s youngest and second largest population. And India is contributing about 7 percent of global growth at the moment, a figure projected to grow towards 10 percent by the end of the decade. Brazil, which seems to be perpetually plagued by its reliance on commodity prices—and the corresponding boom and bust cycles, only contributes 3 to 4 percent to global growth. Russia, at 2 to 3 percent, has yet to live up to its hype. In fact, Russia, India, and Brazil supply a paltry 12 percent of growth. The RIBs have little meat on their bones.
哪一个国家或者地区，能在某一天，取代中国的增长？巴西，印度，俄罗斯的日子还没有到来，印度吹嘘有世界最年轻和世界第二的人口，但是印度目前对全球新增生产总值的贡献只有7个百分点，预计在10年后，也不过增长为10个百分点。巴西，它的问题在于似乎永远都依赖着原材料度日，永远处于周期性的繁荣与萧条，对全球增长的贡献只有3到4个百分点，而俄罗斯，贡献只有2到3个百分点，吹出来的牛根本做不到。事实上，俄罗斯，印度，巴西加一起只贡献了新增生产总值的12%，这三个国家不过是长了几两肉而已。
