erinous
It is a genuine question. Do the people of the West really see China as a threat? Threat, as in potential war enemy in the future? Not like a challenge, but a legit threat?
I mean I understand the fact that China is growing in political, economic and military powers, however, why do people of the West think that someday China become this archenemy of the West? Is it just because pure paranoia and fear? the Cold War mentality? I mean do people really think that China will be the next WWII Japan?
我们好好想一想，西方人真的将中国视作威胁吗？西方人是否认为，中国不仅仅会对西方国家构成挑战，有朝一日更会与自己兵戎相见？
如今中国的政治、经济、军事力量正在迅速成长，这是有目共睹的，但是，为什么西方人认为中国总有一天会成为西方的头号敌人？这种想法是否纯粹来自于西方人的幻想与恐惧？还是冷战思维的延伸？换句话说，人们是否真的认为，中国将会把二战时期日本的所为再重演一遍？
Cartertonian
As far as I'm concerned, any group that is motivated not by its own interest but by a collective delusion that they must impose their ideology on others is a threat.
As it stands, despite retaining a totalitarian approach to the governance of their own people, the Chinese do not seem inclined to try and spread their particular worldview to the rest of us.
If that position changes then so does their threat assessment.
就我个人而言，我认为如果一个组织的产生了一种错觉，认为他们必须将自己的意识形态强加于他人，以至于其行动往往并非出于利益的考量，而是由于这种错觉的驱使，那么这个组织便可算作是“威胁”。
从目前的情况来看，尽管中国人民还在被极权主义所统治，但中国人似乎无意于将他们独特的世界观灌输给我们其余人。
不如换位思考一下，如果站在中国人的立场上，他们估计也会得出相同的结论。
fuser
From that point of view west is a threat to China.
从中国人的角度看，可能西方才是威胁。
Cartertonian
From China's point of view...perhaps, but only in so far as you are characterising democratic free(-ish)-market capitalism as an ideology to be imposed on others.
I can see that point of view, too. Indeed, I once got into a spirited debate with a US Army colleague that ran along the lines of, "Is Truth, Justice and the American Way the new Communism?" Fortunately, he was good natured enough to engage in the debate, rather than stove my head in.
以中国人的角度看…也许吧，不过到目前为止，那些所谓“强加于人”的意识形态也不过就是民主的、市场自由的资本主义，这些都不是坏东西啊。
我也明白立场的问题。其实，我以前曾和一位在美国陆军内任职的同事展开过一场激烈的辩论，我问他，“真理、正义和美国之道是不是一种新式的共产主义？”现在想想幸好这人的脾气真够好的，居然和我辩论下去了，没直接把我的脑袋塞到炉子里去。
Nevertheless, expeditionary military adventures aside, it is difficult to see how democratic free(-ish)-market capitalism is really analogous with an all-encompassing ideological mind-fuck like communism.
西方资本主义确实曾进行过军事远征，但抛开这一层，资本主义毕竟是民主的、市场自由的，与掌控一切、操纵思想的共产主义决不能相提并论。
killim
I can't see China as a threat to other countries, which includes Taiwan. However there are some points that are potentially dangerous and have to be monitored, because of the Chinese power.
There is a huge social/ethnic/economic/you-name-it instability in China and a clear tendency to respond to domestic problems with brutal violence (Tiananmen Square, Tibet, Uigurs etc.).
我不认为中国是其他国家的威胁，即使对于台湾来说也不是。不过中国仍然有一些潜在的危险之处，由于中国的力量强大，我们不得不多加警惕。
中国在社会/种族/经济等方面有着极大的不稳定因素，而且处理国内问题的趋势也明显越来越暴力化
There are numerous additional problems both in bilateral/multilateral and international relationship between China and other countries. On the economical side we can see a beggar my neighbor policy, a simple neglect of the intellectual property and a resource/commodity oriented imperialistic policy. The relationship in its region is complicated by China via the occupation of Tibet, its crazy proxy North Korea, a military armament and a relationship towards Taiwan that is a target where domestic problems are solved. Additionally there is India around the corner with which you have continuous border disputes and which has nuclear capabilities too.
中国与其他国家之间的双边/多边和国际关系同样存在着问题。在经济方面，中国实行以邻为壑政策、忽视知识产权，并且奉行以资源或日常用品的生产为主导的帝国主义政策。此外，中国对西藏地区的占领，以及她身旁那个业已疯狂的狗腿子朝鲜，令中国与其周边地区的关系进一步复杂化；而中国与台湾的关系也是亟待解决的一个问题。此外，中国与印度也有着持续不断的边界争端，而后者同样拥有核武器。
On top of that China is pursuing an egocentric policy and continuously denies the responsibility they have acquired while becoming so powerful. The behavior in Copenhagen was a disgrace, the imperialistic policy in Africa is a shame and similar issues in its hegemonic region are used for their own purposes in an ugly way too.
更重要的是，中国一直奉行着一种利己主义政策，他们在不断变强的同时又拒绝承担责任。中国在哥本哈根上的所作所为极不光彩，他们在非洲的帝国主义方针亦是让人唾弃，至于他们为了自己的目的，在自己的霸权地区内的种种行径，同样也离不开“丑恶”二字。
This can get out of hand and therefore i fully understand that some security strategists consider China as a potential problem in the long term. Especially if the social unrest we are seeing on a regular basis in the rural areas gets out of hand one day and the communist party ruling authority gets challenged or is only potentially challenged from their perspective the situation can get ugly rapidly. Therefore necessary preparations on a strategical basis have to be made in advance from those analysts.
中国有诸多问题，有朝一日很有可能会失控。因此我完全明白为什么战略家们认为中国从长远目光看有着潜在的问题。以中国目前的局势，如果适逢农村地区经常发生的动乱再度兴起，同时共产党的权威受到挑战——甚至可能只是潜在的、理论上的挑战，中国的局势都有可能快速恶化。为此，我们必须未雨绸缪，要采纳分析家们的意见，为日后的局势变化建立战略基础。
Apart from these mentioned analysts with their potential future problems the people and most politicians etc. don't see China as a threat. There are cultural misunderstandings and prejudice (obviously on both sides) but that isn't a real problem so far.
不过如果将政客们的言论，与上述分析家们所提到的中国的潜在问题放到一边，我们也不必将中国视为威胁。我们与中国两边显然都存在着文化上的误解和偏见，但到目前为止这都不算什么大问题。
fuser
回“西方资本主义确实曾进行过军事远征，但抛开这一层，资本主义毕竟是民主的、市场自由的，与掌控一切、操纵思想的共产主义决不能相提并论。”Yes they are not but former had been imposed to many nations by west and if you listen to what top brass of western leaders have to say about china, indeed it feels like they are trying to impose western style democracy with free market capitalism on china.
But one never listen something similar from Chinese leaders telling western nations to adopt one party sate capitalism.
是啊，当然不能相提并论啦，不过你所说的资本主义曾经将自己的意识形态强加给许多国家，而且他们现在似乎正努力把他们的自由市场资本主义也强加到中国身上。
但是，有谁听说过中国领导人也干出过同样的事呢？有哪个中国领导人曾劝说西方国家接受一党制资本主义呢？
Now if we strictly try to look through your theory its completely insane to think china being a threat to west whereas in reality the truth is otherwise.
你的言论不能细看，细看就和疯话无异。还中国是西方的威胁呢，简直颠倒黑白。
Political Interest
Some people in the West have a fear that China will take hegemony over Europe and America. Many are concerned about a Sinocentric world in which the economic, military and political centres of power are based in China as opposed to London, Brussels, Paris, Berlin and Washington. In some respects, despite the fact that the West do not realise it now, such a scenario would be beneficial for what constitutes the "West", but not for its leaders and elite.
在西方，人们害怕中国有朝一日会成为超越欧洲和美国的霸权国家。许多人担心未来的世界将会以中国为主导，届时中国将成为下一个经济，军事和政治中心，而非伦敦、巴黎、柏林、布鲁塞尔或华盛顿。从某些方面来说，这样的情形对于组成“西方”社会的西方人民来说其实是件好事，只不过西方还并没有意识到这一点，当然西方的领导人和精英们也不会这样想。
Igor Antunov
It's just rhetoric and ideological posturing. Certain western governments who control much of the world strategically today certainly see their relative decline as a threat to themselves, naturally they paint a target on the inevitable successor to world hegemony, China. They are being replaced and they don't like it. Deal with it I say. Just stick your thumbs in your mouths, curl up into little balls and deal with it.
所谓威胁论不过是巧言粉饰，借着意识形态做做样子而已。西方在战略上控制着大部分世界，其中某些政府必然已经看到了西方相对衰落的大势，而作为世界霸权无可置疑的继承者，中国也不可避免的成为了他们开炮的目标。西方世界的地位正在被取代，而人们当然不会乐意。要我说，还是放开点吧。咱们把大拇指搁嘴里，蜷成一团伏低做小不就结了嘛。
eugenekop
The west fears China, and rightfully so, they have been in the Soviet block for half a century, and they threatened America ever since. They've been quiet in the last decades, but it can change in a moment. Chinese have a culture of obedience, not of freedom and humanity. They are more likely than other nations (like India for example) to obey a ruthless ruler who will threaten the west.
西方当然会恐惧中国啊，想想看，中国半个世纪以来都苏维埃势力范围之内，而且直到现在还在威胁着美国。虽然中国人在过去数十年内一直没什么动静，但不意味着中国永远都会是这样。中国有一种服从的文化，而不是自由和人性的文化。因此相比起其他国家（如印度），中国人很有可能甘愿服从于残暴的统治者，而这样的统治者将会威胁到西方世界。
Nikita
回ls
Did you hear about the Sino-Soviet split?
你没听说过中苏分裂吗？
tailz
The interesting thing that I find, is the perceived threat that the Chinese feel from the West. I remember talking with a bunch of Chinese students who were about to go and take part in the Pro-China rally (the rallies organised as a counter to the pro-Tibet rallies during the Olympic games torch relay). We discussed Tibetan issues and they all unanimously agreed that Tibet should not gain any form of independence because America would put bases in Tibet from which to bomb China.
I think there is a mutual level of "fear" of each other.
我发现了一个有趣的现象——中国人竟也从西方世界感受到了威胁。我记得当时有一群中国学生举办了一个支持中国的集会（这个集会是为了对抗奥运圣火传递时期支持西藏的集会）。我曾和那些学生们就西藏问题进行了讨论，结果他们全都认为西藏不能以任何形式独立，因为美国有可能在西藏建立基地，从那里对中国进行轰炸。
我想不管是中国还是西方，对于对方的“恐惧”程度应该是差不多的。
Bramlow
Indeed. This point is underappreciated in Western commentary.
People have to remember that China sees many of the states surrounding it - Korea, Japan, Taiwan (albeit not a state, in their eyes) - as American puppets. You can't really blame them for this: the States has strong military ties with all of these countries.
India, Vietnam and others are also seen as to some degree under American sway. Don't forget Afghanistan shares a border with China too.
确实，这个问题在西方一直都没有的到足够的认识。
我们要知道，中国一直认为自己被身边的各个国家所围堵，比如说韩国、日本、台湾（尽管在中国人眼中它根本就不是个国家）——这些国家都是美国的傀儡。你也不能因此就责怪他们，因为这些国家都与美国有着牢不可破的军事联系。
印度、越南及其他许多国家也在某种程度上受到美国的影响。此外，不要忘记阿富汗也和中国接壤。
The trouble is that mutual fear leads to mutual aggravation in these scenarios. If the US feels under threat, it takes defensive measures to protect itself. If these defensive measures are perceived as aggressive, China takes its own defensive measures. And so on.
It's the classic security dilemma scenario, and it may be hard to avoid it in due course.
麻烦的是，中国与西方之间的相互恐惧将会使局势进一步恶化。如果美国认为自己受到了威胁，它就会为了自我保护而加强防御措施。倘若人们将这些举措视为侵略性的行为，那么中国也会加强自身的防御措施。如此循环下去。
这种情况是一种典型的安全困境，并且难以避免。
“安全困境”（security dilemma），又叫“安全两难”，在国际政治的现实主义理论中，它是指一个国家为了保障自身安全而采取的措施，反而会降低其他国家的安全感，从而导致该国自身更加不安全的现象。一个国家即使是出于防御目的增强军备，也会被其他国家视为需要作出反应的威胁，这样一种相互作用的过程是国家难以摆脱的一种困境。
Igor Antunov
it is laughable to equate the US feeling of being threatened to the Chinese feeling in this context you paint. Think about it, one has potentially hostile weaponry and troops being operated from just across the border, the other (US) has two giant oceans between it and anything resembling a threat. The biggest threat to America are mexican drug lords.
这话真够逗的，美国的危机感能和中国的相比吗。想想吧，就算中国想打仗，估计也就是打打周边国家，而美国被两大洋环绕，身边实在没什么可以匹敌的对手。对于美国来说，最大的威胁乃是墨西哥毒枭。
Bramlow
I don't think the US will see China as a threat to its soil, but I do think it may see China as a threat to her regional interests. Taiwan is the obvious example.
我认为在美国眼中，中国虽然不会对其领土构成威胁，但确实有可能威胁到它的区域利益。台湾就是明显的例子。
tailz
回复“确实，这个问题在西方一直都没有的到足够的认识。”
Totally under-appreciated in Western commentary and completely unknown in Asian commentary.
在西方不过是“认识不够”，在亚洲可是“完全没有”哦。
回复“麻烦的是，中国与西方之间的相互恐惧将会…”一段
The problem is, military spending and actions are often the product of misunderstanding of a "perceived" threat from the "other" rather than an actual threat. An example I can think of is of a Chinese friend of mine who's farther is a Chinese General. When this General's daughter travelled to Australia (where I meet her) other Chinese Officers feared that the Australian Military would kidnap her in order to leverage the General. In discussions I've had with her, there was talk that the "establishment" didn't want the General to travel abroad for fear he might be kidnapped and interrogated for Chinese military secrets (even though he has been retired for some time). Now this sounds completely absurd, yet still, shows the level of mistrust. Now on the flip side, I know the Australian inventor of Metal Storm has been invited to China to lecture on his invention. Yet some military people I have talked to think that if he did go to China, he also would be kidnapped and interrogated for his military secrets.
问题在于，军费开支与军事行动更多的是源于国于国之间的误解，而非实实在在的威胁。我就碰到过这么一事儿：我有一朋友，她爹是中国的上将。有一次她去澳大利亚旅游（我就是在那儿碰见她的），结果其他的中国上将都担心澳大利亚军方会把她绑了，好摆弄她爹。我和她聊了聊，听她说原来中国高层不希望上将出国旅游，因为他们担心她爹会被人绑架了，然后被逼吐露出中国军事机密（虽然他已经退休了有一阵子了）。如今想想这种事真的是太搞笑了，不过这也显示出了国与国之间误会之深。不光中国这样，瞧瞧另一边吧：我听说澳大利亚金属风暴系统的发明人受到了中国的邀请，想让他去中国讲讲他的新发明。我和一些军人们就这事聊了聊，其中有些人觉得如果他去了中国，估摸着也会被中国人绑架，然后被逼吐露出他的军事机密……
回复“这种情况是一种典型的安全困境，并且难以避免。”
The crazy thing is, to avoid such confusion, to avoid the guessing game, is simple - increased military cooperation.
Its a communication game - each needs to keep the other informed in order to avoid misconstruing "war games" for "war preparation"
But unfortunately, the mistrust in China is deep seated and dates back to before the Second World War, with many hold overs from the Soviet style Mao era. While the West's mistrust is based on a fear of a suddenly emerging superpower that is rocking the global power balance.
更为奇葩的是，为了使这种安全困境，这种猜谜游戏不真的发生，人们是怎么做的呢？很简单——增加军事合作。
这可谓是一种讯息游戏：每个国家都要尽可能的收集更多的讯息，以便能正确地判断出对方的“军事演习”到底是不是“为战争作准备”。
可惜的是，不信任的思想在中国早已是根深蒂固，这种思想可以追溯至二战之前，其中不少思想在毛泽东时期后依然延续了下来。而西方的不信任感则来源于对突然兴起，正在撼动全球力量平衡的超级强权的恐惧心理。
Bramlow
^ I think this is an excellent analysis. Very interesting anecdote with the Australia thing.
In the China/US scenario, I think there are the following exacerbating factors, in addition to the geopolitical rivalry that tends to emerge among competing powers:
1. As you mentioned, historical bad blood. The Chinese have always struck me as having an incredibly long historical memory. Animosity towards the West goes back at least as far as the Opium Wars and the subsequent ceding of territory and ports to Western powers including the USA. It has gone on fairly frequently since then, in ways that most people in the West aren't even aware of (the post-WW1 'betrayal' treaties, the abandonment of China by the international community with Manchuria and the Japanese invasion, etc).
2. Linguistic barriers. It's a simple fact that very, very few citizens in the US or China have the capability to communicate effectively with the other side. This makes negotiations and agreements - but also the establishment of cultural, business, and civilian links - very much harder to establish. I think this is underappreciated in security dilemma scenarios - imagine how much more understanding and, hence, mutual trust there would be if both sides could understand each other. Many Bachelor's and even Master's graduates in Chinese cannot really speak and write in Chinese to more than a functional or intermediate level, scary as that sounds.
3. Cultural barriers. More or less a supplementary point to the above, but not to be neglected either.
From the US perspective, the policy-making community needs to decide whether to pursue a strategy of containment or whether to try and integrate China in a policy of cooperation. The latter is extremely rare historically, though not impossible.
One notable difference (in my opinion) between this coming period and the Cold War is the multipolarity of the system. It's not only US and China that matter, but another potential first-order power in the form of India. There are also numerous potential second-order powers: Japan, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, many European powers (or even the EU). This makes the situation much more complex and open to alternative outcomes.
你的分析太精辟了。那个澳大利亚的趣闻也很有意思。
在中国或美国这边，
以中国/美国为例，除了地缘竞争之外，我认为下面这些因素也加剧了大国之间的冲突。
一、就像你提到的，历史旧恶。在我对中国的印象中，中国有着悠久到难以置信的历史。他们对西方的仇恨至少可以追溯至鸦片战争时期，战后中国的领土和港口被迫割让给包括美国在内的诸西方国家，自此，这类事件屡见不鲜，而那时大多数的西方人对此浑然不觉（他们甚至没有意识到，他们的行径无异于对他们在一战时制定下的国际条约的背叛；而纵容日军侵华，满洲独立这类事件也无异于对中国的抛弃。）
二、语言障碍。众所周知，不管是在中国还是美国，都只有极少数的公民能流畅地使用外语与对方沟通。在这种情况下，无论是进行谈判、签订协议，还是建立文化，经济和平民交流的纽带，都难上加难。我想，在上面那个安全困境的设想中，语言交流的问题应该得到更进一步的重视——想想如果这个问题解决了，能增进多少理解！因此，我认为只有两边真正理解了对方，互信才有可能实现。有许多在中国毕业的学士甚至硕士甚至都不能用中文进行稍微高端一点的对话和书写，这也太可怕了。
三、文化障碍。这点多多少少算是上述原因的补充，但也不能忽视。
从美国的角度来看，高层应该制定出相应的对华政策：要么选择牵制中国的战略，要么制定相互合作的方针，帮助中国实现统一。第二种做法在历史上是极为罕见的，但也不是不可能。
（在我看来）我们即将迎来一个新时代，这个时代与冷战时期的不同之处在于国际秩序的多元化。如今的，国际角逐已不仅仅是中美两国的事情，另一个可能成为第一梯队大国的国家——印度，也参与其中。此外，日本、俄罗斯、巴西、印尼和许多欧洲国家（实际上应该算是欧盟）也有可能进阶为第二梯队的国家。这就使得局势更为复杂化，而这场较量也有了更多可能的结局。
eugenekop
回“可惜的是，不信任的思想在中国早已是根深蒂固，这种思想可以追溯至二战之前，其中不少思想在毛泽东时期后依然延续了下来。而西方的不信任感则来源于对突然兴起，正在撼动全球力量平衡的超级强权的恐惧心理。”
I fear every non western nation with significant power. I live in the west, I like the west, I like western values, western government, western economy and western culture. Every non western power can potentially threaten the west, and there are plenty of examples for it: Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, Mao China, Islamic terrorism, and others.
我对那些不属于西方，又有权力的国家感到恐惧，不论是哪个国家。我生活在西方，我热爱西方。我爱西方的价值观，我爱西方的政府，我爱西方的经济和文化。但凡一个国家是“非西方”的，它就有可能威胁到西方世界，我可以举出一大堆例子:纳粹德国，苏联，毛泽东治下的中国，伊斯兰恐怖主义，等等等等。
The other problem with non western nations is that they usually don't share the western values of human rights, individuality and rationality. I expect many more atrocities and unreasonableness from China than from America, that's a cultural difference.
The third problem is that China is not a democracy, the government does not answer to the people, so that even if the people want peace and a good livelihood, the government might decide to go to war for its own reasons. This is dangerous.
这些“非西方”国家还有一个问题，那就是它们通常不能领会西方那些承认人权、个性和理性的价值观。发生在中国的暴行和无理之事绝对要比发生在美国的多得多，这就是一个文化的差异。
中国的第三个问题在于它不是一个民主国家。中国的政府不会听取民众的意见，因此即使人民想要平静而和美的生活，政府估计也会为了自己的理由发动战争。这太危险了。 （原文http://www.politicsforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=34&t=122169 译文来自龙腾网 翻译:寒灯）
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